Libro Robust Simulation for Mega-Risks: The Path From Single-Solution to Competitive, Multi-Solution Metho De Craig E. Taylor

portada Robust Simulation for Mega-Risks: The Path From Single-Solution to Competitive, Multi-Solution Methods for Mega-Risk Management

Formato

Libro Físico

Editorial

Springer International Publishing Ag

Autor

Craig E. Taylor

Año

2015

Idioma

Inglés

N° páginas

164

Encuadernación

Tapa Dura

ISBN13

9783319194127

N° edición

Categorías

Modelos y simulaciones por ordenador

Robust Simulation for Mega-Risks: The Path From Single-Solution to Competitive, Multi-Solution Methods for Mega-Risk Management

Craig E. Taylor (Autor) · Springer International Publishing Ag · Tapa Dura

Sin Stock

Reseña del libro "Robust Simulation for Mega-Risks: The Path From Single-Solution to Competitive, Multi-Solution Methods for Mega-Risk Management"

This book introduces a new way of analyzing, measuring and thinking about mega-risks, a "paradigm shift" that moves from single-solutions to multiple competitive solutions and strategies. "Robust simulation" is a statistical approach that demonstrates future risk through simulation of a suite of possible answers. To arrive at this point, the book systematically walks through the historical statistical methods for evaluating risks. The first chapters deal with three theories of probability and statistics that have been dominant in the 20th century, along with key mathematical issues and dilemmas. The book then introduces "robust simulation" which solves the problem of measuring the stability of simulated losses, incorporates outliers, and simulates future risk through a suite of possible answers and stochastic modeling of unknown variables. This book discusses various analytical methods for utilizing divergent solutions in making pragmatic financial and risk-mitigation decisions. The book emphasizes the importance of flexibility and attempts to demonstrate that alternative credible approaches are helpful and required in understanding a great many phenomena.